Definition. The spread in sub-six-month AI payback expectations between the CEO seat and the finance seat. September 2026: 28 points (70 versus 42).
The figure, seat by seat
How soon each chair expects measurable AI return, from the same question asked in the same rooms. Seat bases: CEO and founder 80, finance 52, technology 23 and investor 20, the last two directional.
| Expected payback | CEO/Founder (80) | Finance (52) | Technology (23) | Investor (20) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under six months | 70 percent | 42 percent | 39 percent | 35 percent |
| Six to twelve months | 24 percent | 46 percent | 26 percent | 25 percent |
| Not sure | 4 percent | 12 percent | 26 percent | 25 percent |
Source: Open Future Forum, Enterprise AI Buying and Budget Index, September 2026 editions.
What changed since Edition 2
Edition 2 read the gap at 27 points, 72 percent at the CEO seat against 45 at finance, on seat bases of 43 and 33. Edition 3 reads 28 points, 70 against 42, on bases of 80 and 52. Both ends of the gap fell while the distance between them held. Across all finance rooms, the share expecting payback inside six months fell from 54 percent to 48.
How to read it
The gap is not a disagreement about whether AI works. It is a difference in what each chair is accountable for. The seat that signs expects the return soonest; the seat that will be asked to produce the evidence gives itself longer, and its most common answer is six to twelve months at 46 percent. The spread in certainty runs the same way: 4 percent of the CEO seat is unsure, against 12 percent of finance and 26 of technology.
A CFO negotiating an AI proposal should assume roughly 28 points of payback optimism sits across the table before the conversation starts.
How it is measured. From the instrument questions in the application flow for Open Future Forum events, cut by the respondent’s seat from self-reported title. Bases are unique people per instrument; bases under 40 are directional. Full method: Executive AI Leverage Report, September 2026, Methodology and honesty notes.
Tracked figures. See the Trend by edition table in the current edition and the Executive AI Statistics page. Dataset DOI 10.5281/zenodo.21576019.
Why it matters. It is the number that decides whether an AI business case is argued once or re-argued every quarter. Boards are shown the CEO seat's figure; finance is asked to prove its own. The series reports the current figure, the prior figure, and the change each edition.
Where it appears
Read in full in the Executive AI Leverage Report (Exhibit 2), the CEO AI Leverage Report and the CFO AI Leverage Report, and used as a governance question in the Board Director AI Governance Report.
Cite as. Newlands, M. (2026). The Optimism Gap. Open Future Forum, Enterprise AI Buying and Budget Index. openfutureforum.com/research/definitions/optimism-gap
About Open Future Forum
Open Future Forum is a global executive community founded in Silicon Valley. Its network reaches tens of thousands of executives and investors worldwide. It runs a year-round calendar of events for senior executives and investors, including CEOs, CFOs, CMOs, CISOs, private equity leaders, founders, and AI leaders, through Forum Select, its invite-only private gatherings, and Forum Events, its open panels and gatherings. Beyond events, Open Future Forum convenes peer groups and executive boards and publishes original research built on first-party survey and qualitative data from its executive network.
Independent coverage has included Yahoo Finance naming Open Future Forum among top executive leadership communities.
About Murray Newlands
Murray Newlands is the founder of Open Future Forum and the host of its executive dinner series and research program. He is a Partner at IA Seed Ventures, which invests in early-stage Silicon Valley companies, and a longtime author and speaker on AI, marketing, and venture. He writes on AI, venture, and enterprise strategy at murraynewlands.substack.com. More at openfutureforum.com/about and murraynewlands.com.
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