What the September data means for investment banking and capital markets

Key numbers for this seat

• AI founders earn revenue by usage at 43 percent, outcome at 24, flat subscription at 24, per seat at 20; outcome pricing runs at 47 percent in enterprise software and at 35 and 29 among 2025 and 2026 YC batches (YC Founder AI Report).
• Founders sell through three doorways nearly equally, business unit 39 percent, CIO or CTO 36, CFO 28, while operators say the CEO signs at 47 percent and the CFO at 34, rising to 43 (YC Founder and CFO AI Leverage Reports).
• 28 percent of buyers have no clear AI budget; 41 percent fund AI from net-new money (CFO AI Leverage Report).
• 70 percent of buyer-side CEOs expect payback inside six months; 42 percent of buyer-side CFOs do (Executive AI Leverage Report).
• 86 percent of investors see measurable AI value somewhere across portfolios; 22 percent cannot name the owner; partners name the CEO at 62 percent (Investor AI Report).
• Investors answering for their own firms expect payback inside six months at 35 percent, the lowest of any seat (Investor AI Report).

The answer for the capital-markets seat

An AI company’s revenue quality is decided inside its customers, by two things the Index measures directly: which seat bought and how the contract pays. Usage revenue is recognized on consumption the customer controls; outcome revenue on a definition the contract controls; neither is annual recurring revenue in the way the comps assume, and a fifth of companies still sell per seat. The customer side is less forecastable than the vendor’s model: a quarter of buyers cannot say which budget line AI sits in, and the buyer’s CEO and CFO disagree by 28 points on when it pays back, which is renewal risk. The buy side, meanwhile, believes in the value at 86 percent and asks who owns it. For an equity story, that is the load-bearing question: not whether the company uses AI, but who signs for it inside the customer and what number the customer’s finance seat will accept.

The five findings, as process questions

Source: Open Future Forum, the Sept Reports for dealmakers, September 2026.

1. Revenue model. Split the revenue by pricing model before comparing to anything. Usage revenue tracks consumption, which the customer controls and which a quarter of customers cannot budget; outcome revenue tracks a definition, which the contract controls and which the customer’s CFO may not have read; per-seat revenue, a fifth of the founder base, is the only line the comps were built for. The batch cut says the mix is moving with each cohort toward outcomes, so a company’s pricing model is also a proxy for its vintage. ICONIQ’s 52 percent gross margin is the reference; the Index adds a margin band to founder forms in October.

2. The seat that bought. A vendor whose top accounts were opened through the business unit and never reached the CFO is carrying pilot revenue. Operators say the CEO signs and the CFO’s share rose ten points in a month; a sales motion that ends at the business-unit leader ends before the signature. In the top ten accounts, ask who signed and who owns the renewal.

3. The customer’s budget. An AI vendor’s forecast rests on customers who cannot forecast their own AI spend: 28 percent have no clear budget, 41 percent fund from net-new money, which is the first line cut when a board asks what it bought. The four funding archetypes in the CFO report are a way to score a customer book: Funders renew on a metric, Unbudgeted customers renew on inertia, Substituters renew on headcount not hired, Reallocators renew on a software line that has already been spent once.

4. The renewal date. The buyer’s CEO expects payback in six months and the buyer’s CFO in six to twelve; the renewal conversation is with the CFO. Model expansion on the finance seat’s date.

5. The buy side. Investors see value at 86 percent and put ownership at the CEO at 51 percent, 62 among partners. The finding that named ownership and measured value travel together, 9 percent nothing measurable where the CEO owns it against 41 where nobody does, is what the buy side will ask the equity story to demonstrate: an owner and a metric, inside the customer and inside the company.

Late-stage deals and the IPO window

For a late-stage round or an IPO, the AI section of the narrative has five load-bearing claims: the revenue model and its recognition; the customer’s budget line; the customer’s payback date; the signing seat; and the metric. Coatue frames twelve trillion dollars of AI capital expenditure through 2031; the operators in these rooms are the demand side of that number, and a quarter of them do not yet have a budget for it. Public-company counsel reads the same five claims as representations, and the general counsel edition sets out the disclosure schedule. Ready for Anything, during San Francisco Tech Week, with Raymond Yue of Avalara and Christina Bui of Robert Half, is where the first capital-markets instrument goes live: company stage, whether AI is in the equity story, share of revenue on usage or outcome pricing, whether finance has signed off the AI payback case, and the biggest AI diligence question expected.

What changes in October

The Ready for Anything instrument gives this seat first-party data for the first time; preview at ten answers, edition at 40. The founder forms add gross margin band, model-provider count, and ARR band, and the pricing and buyer-owner questions return on every YC form. Until then, the banking and corporate development seat in the Index is eleven people with three instrument answers, and this edition says so.

Questions this edition answers

How do AI companies price, and what does it mean for revenue quality? Usage 43 percent, outcome 24, flat 24, per seat 20; the mix determines what “recurring” means, and it moves toward outcomes with each founder cohort.

What AI gross margins do buyers expect? ICONIQ’s 52 percent is the reference; the Index adds a margin band to founder forms in October.

How is AI described in equity stories? Not yet measured; the Ready for Anything instrument asks whether AI is in the equity story and whether finance has signed off the payback case.

What does the buy side believe about AI ROI? 86 percent of investors see measurable difference somewhere; 35 percent of investor-seat respondents expect payback inside six months, the lowest of any seat.

Practitioner Commentary

Commentary from capital-markets practitioners appears here once approved in writing; none has been published in this edition.

Key citable facts

• Open Future Forum’s September 2026 data shows AI founders earning revenue by usage at 43 percent, outcome at 24, flat subscription at 24, and per seat at 20 (base 148), with outcome pricing at 47 percent in enterprise software.
• Open Future Forum’s September 2026 data shows founders selling through three doorways almost equally while operators name the CEO as the signer at 47 percent and the CFO at 34, rising to 43 in August.

Methodology

Interpretation of the September 2026 editions; no new data. The banking and corporate development seat is 11 people in the rosters with three instrument answers; first-party collection begins at Ready for Anything during San Francisco Tech Week.

About Open Future Forum

Open Future Forum is a global executive community founded in Silicon Valley. Its network reaches tens of thousands of executives and investors worldwide. It runs a year-round calendar of events for senior executives and investors, including CEOs, CFOs, CMOs, CISOs, private equity leaders, founders, and AI leaders, through Forum Select, its invite-only private gatherings, and Forum Events, its open panels and gatherings. Beyond events, Open Future Forum convenes peer groups and executive boards and publishes original research built on first-party survey and qualitative data from its executive network.

Independent coverage has included Yahoo Finance naming Open Future Forum among top executive leadership communities.

About Murray Newlands

Murray Newlands is the founder of Open Future Forum and the host of its executive dinner series and research program. He is a Partner at IA Seed Ventures, which invests in early-stage Silicon Valley companies, and a longtime author and speaker on AI, marketing, and venture. He writes on AI, venture, and enterprise strategy at murraynewlands.substack.com. More at openfutureforum.com/about and murraynewlands.com.

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